Changing patterns of colonisation and persistence during the wolf recolonisation of the human-dominated Italian alpine region

Dynamic occupancy models are fundamental for understanding complex species recolonisation processes, as they allow the assessment of both colonisation and persistence probabilities over time. Using a dynamic occupancy model and a large-scale multi-year dataset on wolf presence collected in the Italian alpine region between 2014 and 2020, we analysed temporal trends in wolf colonisation and persistence probabilities in relation to environmental factors, prey availability and human-related characteristics. Our results demonstrate that wolf recolonisation is an ongoing and dynamic process in the Italian Alps, with colonisation probabilities increasing throughout the study period, particularly in the northeast of the study area. Although we detected a slight positive temporal trend in the effect of human density, wolves continue to preferentially colonise natural areas, despite a decreasing availability, as evidenced by the continued positive effects of forest cover, low natural vegetation and presence of wild ungulates. Persistence probabilities remained relatively high and constant on average, but we noticed an increasingly negative effect of the presence of livestock pastures and densely populated areas. On the other hand, we noticed an increasingly positive effect of covariates associated with natural areas, such as forest cover, low natural vegetation and wild ungulate richness. This resulted in an increasingly contrasted spatial pattern in persistence probability throughout the region, likely reflecting conflict zones where wolves attempt to establish but struggle to survive. Overall, our study aligns with trends observed in other wolf populations across Europe, showing an expansion into new areas with different characteristics, highlighting potential areas of emerging conflict that warrant continued targeted monitoring. These patterns offer valuable insights for wolf conservation and management in human-dominated landscapes.

Citation

Boiani, M. V., Dupont, P., Bischof, R., Friard, O., Bisi, F., Bombieri, G., Calderola, S., Carolfi, S., Chioso, C., Corlatti, L., Fattori, U., Ferrari, P., Filacorda, S., Geary, M., Molinari, P., Pernechele, E., Righetti, D., Tomasella, M., Truc, F.,…Marucco, F. (2026). Changing patterns of colonisation and persistence during the wolf recolonisation of the human-dominated Italian alpine region. Ecography, 2026, e08044. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08044

Publisher

Wiley
Nordic Society Oikos

Journal

Ecography

URI

https://chesterrep.openrepository.com/handle/10034/630044

DOI

10.1002/ecog.08044

Type

Article

Description

ISSN

0906-7590

EISSN

1600-0587

Additional Links

https://nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecog.08044