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Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
Derbyshire, James
Derbyshire, James
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2026-03-23
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Abstract
This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly prominent in shaping visions of the future across science, policy, and society, their use raises fundamental concerns. The paper outlines three key challenges: the limitations of models in handling novelty and surprise, their counter-performative effects in shaping rather than simply anticipating futures, and the epistemological consequences of their dominance in evidence-based policymaking. Drawing on critiques from science and technology studies, economics, and complexity theory, the authors argue for a more reflexive, inclusive, and pluralistic approach to modelling. They propose six guiding principles—transparency, reflexivity, inclusivity, complexity (not complicatedness), relevance over precision, and contribution—to guide submissions to Futures. The goal is to ensure that modelling contributes meaningfully to the field’s core mission: the collective construction of better futures, and to help authors in writing papers that are appropriately reflexive towards the use of models in futures work.
Citation
Derbyshire, J. (2026). Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures. Futures: for the interdisciplinary study of futures, visioning, anticipation and foresight, 179, 103813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813
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Elsevier
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Futures: for the interdisciplinary study of futures, visioning, anticipation and foresight
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Article
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© 2026 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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ISSN
0016-3287
EISSN
1873-6378