Drivers of density and sex ratio in the leopard Panthera pardus population of Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa

The leopard Panthera pardus is a widespread felid, distributed throughout Africa, Asia and parts of the Middle East. The survival of the African leopard Panthera pardus pardus is significantly higher within protected areas but numerous factors influence the growth and stability of populations. Monitoring population density and demographics over a long timeframe can help to identify the drivers of change and inform conservation actions. We aimed to determine the drivers of change in leopard populations in a protected area and to identify those factors that encourage leopards to remain within the reserve, so that appropriate conservation management actions can be implemented to improve leopard survival and reduce human–wildlife conflict. We used camera trapping to monitor changes in the leopard population in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa, in a long-term study during 2013–2022. We applied spatially explicit capture–recapture models to the camera-trap data to determine annual population density and sex ratio. We estimated that leopard density declined from six to four individuals per 100 km2 over the study decade. The sex ratio was heavily female-biased during the first years of the study but was male-biased by 2022 (male : female ratio of 0.64 : 0.36). Individual leopards remained in the Park for 2.45 years on average and annual turnover was high. The abundance of other predators and the level of conflict with people affected leopard density and their duration of residency in the Park, and annual rainfall also had an effect. Instability within leopard populations affects population growth and is linked to a range of factors such as prey availability, habitat fragmentation and persecution. However, immigration of males from other populations should increase genetic diversity and improve breeding success. Understanding the drivers of leopard population dynamics, and the factors that cause them to remain inside protected areas, can help with the design and implementation of appropriate conservation management actions to lower individual turnover and limit human–wildlife conflict.

Citation

Barker, E., Druce, D. J., Parker, D. M., Roberts, P. J., Theron, D., Woodgate, Z., & Geary, M. (2026). Drivers of density and sex ratio in the leopard Panthera pardus population of Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa. Oryx, vol(issue), pages. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605325102019

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Journal

Oryx

URI

https://chesterrep.openrepository.com/handle/10034/629962

DOI

10.1017/S0030605325102019

Type

Article

Description

ISSN

0030-6053

EISSN

1365-3008

Additional Links

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/oryx/article/drivers-of-density-and-sex-ratio-in-the-leopard-panthera-pardus-population-of-hluhluweimfolozi-park-south-africa/D0508D983DD0C90B81BB862844563F48