Space-time estimation of built-up landscape of Ilorin Metropolis, Nigeria

Abstract

This paper assesses the spatiotemporal dynamics of the built-up environment in Ilorin, Nigeria, and appraises the landscape changes between 1986 and 2020. The study used information from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) with remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as major analyses instruments. Employing the Markov model and artificial neural networks (ANN), particularly multilayer perceptron (MLP) models, the study predicts future land loss surrendered to urbanization processes. The study employed Landsat 4–5, 7, and 8 images of Ilorin administrative areas for five epochs: 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016, and 2020 for land cover monitoring. The Environment for Visualizing Images (ENVI) and ArcGIS software were utilized for image classification, enhancement, processing, analysis, and land use map production. Calculations of land consumption rate (LCR) and land absorption coefficient (LAC) revealed increased land consumption from 3757.23 ha in 1986 to 15,925.17 ha in 2020, with a fluctuating LAC influenced by historical events and specific government policies measured by different regimes. The land development index (LDI) indicated urban expansion trends, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach encompassing environmental, social, economic, and institutional dimensions for sustainable development in Ilorin.