Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection

Derbyshire, James

dc.contributor.author	Derbyshire, James
dc.contributor.editor	Crawford, Megan M.
dc.contributor.editor	Wright, George
dc.date.accessioned	2024-04-15T07:57:42Z
dc.date.available	2024-04-15T07:57:42Z
dc.date.issued	2025-02-13
dc.identifier	https://chesterrep.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10034/628607/JDerbyshire_311223.pdf?sequence=3
dc.identifier.citation	Derbyshire, J. (2025). Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection. In M. M. M. Crawford & G. Wright (Eds.), Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking (pp. 54-72). Edward Elgar.	en_US
dc.identifier.isbn	9781035310579
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10034/628607
dc.description	This is a draft chapter. The final version is available in [Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking] edited by [Megan M. Crawford & George Wright], published in 2025, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. The material cannot be used for any other purpose without further permission of the publisher, and is for private use only.	en_US
dc.description.abstract	The chapter sets out a new theory, underpinning philosophy, and practical approach to decision-making under uncertainty through use of the tool scenario planning. The new approach is based on an alternative to the presently mainstream understanding of rational decision-making based on Rational Choice Theory. The outlined alternative is a combination of frame-sensitive reasoning and if-then conditional prospection. The implications for scenario planning of this alternative understanding of rationality are explored in detail.	en_US
dc.publisher	Edward Elgar Publishing	en_US
dc.relation.url	https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/improving-and-enhancing-scenario-planning-9781035310579.html	en_US
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/	en_US
dc.subject	Scenario planning	en_US
dc.subject	Decision making	en_US
dc.title	Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection	en_US
dc.type	Book chapter	en_US
dc.contributor.department	University of Chester	en_US
dc.title.book	Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking
dc.date.accepted	2024-04-13
rioxxterms.identifier.project	Unfunded	en_US
rioxxterms.version	AM	en_US
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate	2026-02-13
dc.source.beginpage	54-72
dc.date.deposited	2024-04-15	en_US