Integrating modelling-based and stakeholder-focused scenario approaches to close the planning gap and accelerate low-carbon transitions

Abstract

While many transition scenarios describe potential low-carbon systems, few link these system-level outcomes to the microlevel stakeholder decision-making needed to actualise them, resulting in a ‘planning gap’. Closing this gap requires that insights from modelling-based transition scenarios on what must happen to achieve climate targets are linked to those on how to make it happen from stakeholder-focused transition scenarios. This link requires a different understanding of decision-making rationality from that of a representative agent with rational expectations, as employed in much climate-change modelling currently. Rationality conceived as ‘frame-sensitive reasoning’ can better account for heterogenous stakeholders’ alternative preferences, the actions they take in pursuit of them, and the effect of these actions on low-carbon transitions. This paper augments the Intuitive Logics (IL) stakeholder-focused scenario approach to enable frame-sensitive reasoning and provide modelling-based transition scenarios with realistic innovation-diffusion assumptions. In so doing, the paper assists in closing the planning gap.