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dc.contributor.authorHall, Ian; orcid: 0000-0002-3033-2335; email: ian.hall@manchester.ac.uk
dc.contributor.authorLewkowicz, Hugo; orcid: 0000-0002-8944-0365
dc.contributor.authorWebb, Luke; orcid: 0000-0001-6263-0575
dc.contributor.authorHouse, Thomas; orcid: 0000-0001-5835-8062
dc.contributor.authorPellis, Lorenzo; orcid: 0000-0002-3436-6487
dc.contributor.authorSedgwick, James; orcid: 0000-0002-7200-4559
dc.contributor.authorGent, Nick; orcid: 0000-0002-2605-7369
dc.contributor.authoron behalf of the University of Manchester COVID-19 Modelling Group and the Public Health England Modelling Team
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-31T20:32:18Z
dc.date.available2021-05-31T20:32:18Z
dc.date.issued2021-05-31
dc.identifierhttps://chesterrep.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10034/624787/rstb.2020.0269.pdf?sequence=2
dc.identifierhttps://chesterrep.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10034/624787/rstb.2020.0269.xml?sequence=3
dc.identifier.citationPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, volume 376, issue 1829, page 20200269
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10034/624787
dc.descriptionFrom The Royal Society via Jisc Publications Router
dc.descriptionHistory: accepted 2020-12-07, pub-electronic 2021-05-31, pub-print 2021-07-19
dc.descriptionArticle version: VoR
dc.descriptionPublication status: Published
dc.descriptionFunder: Public Health Research Programme; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001921; Grant(s): OPERA (Hall)
dc.descriptionFunder: Wellcome Trust; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440; Grant(s): Sir Henry Dale Fellowship (Pellis)
dc.description.abstractThe number of COVID-19 outbreaks reported in UK care homes rose rapidly in early March of 2020. Owing to the increased co-morbidities and therefore worse COVID-19 outcomes for care home residents, it is important that we understand this increase and its future implications. We demonstrate the use of an SIS model where each nursing home is an infective unit capable of either being susceptible to an outbreak (S) or in an active outbreak (I). We use a generalized additive model to approximate the trend in growth rate of outbreaks in care homes and find the fit to be improved in a model where the growth rate is proportional to the number of current care home outbreaks compared with a model with a constant growth rate. Using parameters found from the outbreak-dependent growth rate, we predict a 73% prevalence of outbreaks in UK care homes without intervention as a reasonable worst-case planning assumption. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.rightsLicence for VoR version of this article: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.sourcepissn: 0962-8436
dc.sourceeissn: 1471-2970
dc.subjectARTICLES
dc.subjectResearch articles
dc.subjectcare home
dc.subjectinstitutional outbreaks
dc.subjectmathematical modelling
dc.titleOutbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated
dc.typearticle
dc.date.updated2021-05-31T20:32:17Z
dc.date.accepted2020-12-07


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