Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey
AuthorsAfshar, Mehdi H.; orcid: 0000-0002-4411-3299; email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Şorman, Ali Ünal; orcid: 0000-0002-7383-6496
Tosunoğlu, Fatih; orcid: 0000-0002-8423-1089
Bulut, Burak; orcid: 0000-0003-4567-5258
Yilmaz, M. Tugrul; orcid: 0000-0001-5094-1878
Danandeh Mehr, Ali; orcid: 0000-0003-2769-106X
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AbstractAbstract: Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models that run under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios was used to attain the well-known SPI series during the reference period of 1986–2018 and the future period of 2018–2050, respectively. Analyzing drought features in two time periods generally indicated the higher probability of occurrence of drought in the future period. The results showed that the duration of mild droughts may increase, and extreme droughts will occur with longer durations and larger severities. Moreover, joint return period analysis through different copula functions revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same in the near future, while it declines by 12% over extreme droughts in the near future.
CitationTheoretical and Applied Climatology, volume 141, issue 3-4, page 1045-1055
DescriptionFrom Springer Nature via Jisc Publications Router
History: received 2019-10-26, accepted 2020-05-04, registration 2020-05-04, pub-electronic 2020-05-22, online 2020-05-22, pub-print 2020-08
Publication status: Published
Funder: University of Manchester
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