Landslide susceptibility mapping in North-East Wales

Abstract

In North-East Wales, United Kingdom, slope instability is a known environmental hazard which has caused significant damage to the built environment in the recent past. This paper reports on the creation of a digital landslide inventory for North-East Wales and the use of a Geographical Information System (GIS) to create landslide susceptibility models that are applicable to landslide hazard management in the area. The research undertaken has resulted in the most comprehensive landslide inventory of North-East Wales to date, documenting 430 landslides within the area. Landslide susceptibility models created within a GIS using a statistical (multiple logistic regression) approach, divide the landscape of North-East Wales into areas of ‘low’, ‘moderate’ and ‘high’ landslide susceptibility using calculated probability values. These models indicate that 8% of the surface exposure of drift deposits and 12% of the area of solid geology is of high or very high susceptibility to slope instability. Validation tests have demonstrated the accuracy of these models and their potential value in a predictive sense. The digital landslide database and susceptibility models created are readily available to interested stakeholders, and may be useful tools in land-use planning, development of civil contingency plans and as guidance for the insurance industry.