Performance indicator ranking and predictive modelling in rugby union.

Green, Ryan F.

dc.contributor.author	Green, Ryan F.	*
dc.date.accessioned	2016-08-31T15:03:39Z
dc.date.available	2016-08-31T15:03:39Z
dc.date.issued	2015-09
dc.identifier.citation	Green, R. F. (2015). Performance indicator ranking and predictive modelling in rugby union. (Master's thesis). University of Chester, United Kingdom.	en
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10034/619160
dc.description.abstract	The aim of this study is to increase the body of knowledge surrounding Northern Hemisphere rugby union by establishing norms for performance indicators; forming a ranking of performance indicators in terms of their importance to successful team performance on a game by game and seasonal basis; in addition creating a predictive model that can forecast domestic league success. Match statistics from 132 men’s domestic matches played over the 2014/15 season of the Aviva Premiership were analysed. Team performance indicators representing frequencies of a given event for each team in each match were divided into six categories: attack, defence, kicking, breakdown, set pieces and discipline. Statistics from each of the 132 matches were then inputted into Microsoft Excel and subsequently IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows (version 22) software for statistical analysis. The performance indicators were used to highlight key differences between winning and losing performances as well as team ranking on a game by game and seasonal basis. It was found that in accordance to previous research, clean breaks are crucial to successful rugby performance as they often lead to some form of score, and scoring often reflects game outcome (Hughes et al., 2012). Also the need for penalty limitation and effective set pieces, to maintain possession and limit the scoring opportunities of the opposition, (Askew, 2010; Higham, 2014; Hughes et al., 2012) has been supported. Finally, a significant (P<0.05) relationship between successful rugby union performance and the amount of mauls won was found, it has been theorized that this was due to the effectiveness of a specific set piece tactic known as lineout drives.
dc.language.iso	en	en
dc.publisher	University of Chester	en
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/	*
dc.subject	performance indicators	en
dc.subject	rugby union	en
dc.subject	clean breaks	en
dc.subject	mauls	en
dc.title	Performance indicator ranking and predictive modelling in rugby union.	en
dc.type	Thesis or dissertation	en
dc.type.qualificationname	MSc	en
dc.type.qualificationlevel	Masters Degree	en
html.description.abstract	The aim of this study is to increase the body of knowledge surrounding Northern Hemisphere rugby union by establishing norms for performance indicators; forming a ranking of performance indicators in terms of their importance to successful team performance on a game by game and seasonal basis; in addition creating a predictive model that can forecast domestic league success. Match statistics from 132 men’s domestic matches played over the 2014/15 season of the Aviva Premiership were analysed. Team performance indicators representing frequencies of a given event for each team in each match were divided into six categories: attack, defence, kicking, breakdown, set pieces and discipline. Statistics from each of the 132 matches were then inputted into Microsoft Excel and subsequently IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows (version 22) software for statistical analysis. The performance indicators were used to highlight key differences between winning and losing performances as well as team ranking on a game by game and seasonal basis. It was found that in accordance to previous research, clean breaks are crucial to successful rugby performance as they often lead to some form of score, and scoring often reflects game outcome (Hughes et al., 2012). Also the need for penalty limitation and effective set pieces, to maintain possession and limit the scoring opportunities of the opposition, (Askew, 2010; Higham, 2014; Hughes et al., 2012) has been supported. Finally, a significant (P<0.05) relationship between successful rugby union performance and the amount of mauls won was found, it has been theorized that this was due to the effectiveness of a specific set piece tactic known as lineout drives.