AbstractThis master's dissertation concentrates on how epidemics occur, and how we can predict the likely outcomes. We use mathematical models to analyse how different population groups interact, and how certain parameters can be pivotal in accurately predicting epidemics. Throughout this dissertation we will focus on work done in the book by Murray and the paper by Kermack and McKendrick. We study the Human Immunode ciency Virus (HIV), and discuss a population model which predicts how the virus behaves in a homosexual population. Then we then formulate a model of the biological make up of the disease. This enables us to evaluate the potential effects drug therapy can have in reducing the evolution of HIV into AIDS, and in reducing the spread of HIV within the population. We will evaluate how numerical approximations can provide an insight into how an epidemic may develop when analytic solutions cannot be obtained. Computed approximations will then be compared to explain the likely outcomes when an epidemic occurs.
CitationColeman, G. J. (2015). An investigation into the analysis of epidemiological models. (Master's thesis). University of Chester, United Kingdom.
PublisherUniversity of Chester
TypeThesis or dissertation
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