• Forecast model for radon concentrations in visitor caves

      Mitchell, Kirsty A. (University of Chester, 2012-09-20)
      The aim of this project is to develop a mathematical forecast model which can be used to forecase the radon ceontrations in visitor caves and to assess its validity using statistical analysis of its outputs and datasets from other caves. The project consists of a literature review, the creation of a forecast model and a statistical analysis of the results of the model with comparison data. The aim of the literaure review is to identify any mathematical models involving radon concentrations and to find any datasets that could be used to develop a forecast model of the seasonal variations in radon concentrations. Having identified a suitable dataset for development of the model a model specific to that cave will be carried out. The results of this model will then be statistically anlysed using the original dataset and a second dataset for comparison purposes, following any necessary adjustments. This will identify whether a forecast model based on observed seasonal variations could be used to predict accurately the radon concetrations in a visitor cave. The use of a second dataset will indicate whether this model has the potential to be applied to other caves or whether predictive models would have to specifically developed for each cave system.