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Comparative Performance Modelling of Heat Pump based Heating Systems using Dynamic Carbon IntensityCounsell, John M.; Khalid, Yousaf; Stewart, Matt; University of Chester (IET, 2018-11-31)Modern buildings and homes utilise multiple systems for energy generation, supply and storage in order to maintain occupant comfort, reduce operating costs and CO2 emissions. In recent times electricity generation and supply network (UK National Grid) have had to manage variable supply from renewable sources such as wind turbines and photovoltaics. This resulting supply mixture has a dynamic profile at intermittent times. To manage excess supply, the options are either to reduce the generation by power stations/renewables or reinforce the power infrastructure with storage capability. This has given rise to calls for electrification of services in streamlining the supply profile through intelligent demand response such as electric heating and vehicles. Furthermore, due to zero carbon energy sources with dynamic supply profile, the carbon intensity is no longer constant. This impacts the seasonal CO2 emissions calculations and also the design and performance of electrical powered heat pump based heating systems. The RISE (Renewable Integrated Sustainable Electric) heating system was developed (funded by the UK Research and Innovation), where an electrical powered Heat pump is combined with electric thermal storage allowing low cost and low carbon electricity to be utilised. For such a system more realistic performance analysis requires dynamic carbon intensity calculations to assess impact on its ability to maintain comfort, low operating costs and low carbon emissions. The paper builds upon previously published research on the RISE system comparing with domestic Gas Condensing Boiler (GCB) using static carbon calculations. This paper presents a comparison between the RISE system and standard domestic electrical powered Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP) when using static and dynamic carbon intensity profiles. The Inverse Dynamics based Energy Assessment and Simulation (IDEAS) framework is utilised for modelling and dynamic simulation of building and heating system, operating cost and estimation of annual emissions based on half hourly (HH) dynamic CO2 intensity figures rather than annual average. The results show that with dynamic carbon intensity calculations, both electric heat pump based heating systems, RISE and ASHP show a significant increase (>15%) in carbon emissions for space heating. The results also show that whilst the RISE system’s thermal storage helps to reduce running costs using a time of use tariff (TOU), it only provides a small benefit in carbon emissions.