Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species

Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10034/592499
Title:
Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species
Authors:
Geary, Matthew; Fielding, Alan H.; McGowan, Philip J. K.; Marsden, Stuart J.
Abstract:
Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5–30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and ‘increased grazing’ (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the ‘reduced grazing’ scenario were nonlinear. ‘Scenario-led’ landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.
Affiliation:
University of Chester, Manchester Metropolitan University; Newcastle University
Citation:
Geary, M., Fielding, A. H., McGowan, P. J. K., & Marsden, S. J. (2015). Scenario-led habitat modelling of land use change Impacts on key species. PLoS ONE 10(11): e0142477. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0142477
Publisher:
PLOS
Journal:
PLOS one
Publication Date:
16-Nov-2015
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10034/592499
Additional Links:
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0142477
Type:
Article
Language:
en
Sponsors:
This study was part of a PhD studentship funded through the World Pheasant Association (from the Henry Angest Foundation, Howman Charitable Foundation, Mactaggart Third Charitable Trust, PF Charitable Trust and AF Wallace Charity Trust) and the Dalton Research Institute.
Appears in Collections:
Biological Sciences

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorGeary, Matthewen
dc.contributor.authorFielding, Alan H.en
dc.contributor.authorMcGowan, Philip J. K.en
dc.contributor.authorMarsden, Stuart J.en
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-21T16:01:15Zen
dc.date.available2015-12-21T16:01:15Zen
dc.date.issued2015-11-16en
dc.identifier.citationGeary, M., Fielding, A. H., McGowan, P. J. K., & Marsden, S. J. (2015). Scenario-led habitat modelling of land use change Impacts on key species. PLoS ONE 10(11): e0142477. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0142477en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10034/592499en
dc.description.abstractAccurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5–30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and ‘increased grazing’ (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the ‘reduced grazing’ scenario were nonlinear. ‘Scenario-led’ landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was part of a PhD studentship funded through the World Pheasant Association (from the Henry Angest Foundation, Howman Charitable Foundation, Mactaggart Third Charitable Trust, PF Charitable Trust and AF Wallace Charity Trust) and the Dalton Research Institute.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPLOSen
dc.relation.urlhttp://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0142477en
dc.subjectHabitatsen
dc.subjectGrouseen
dc.subjectLand useen
dc.subjectForestryen
dc.subjectGrazingen
dc.subjectForestsen
dc.subjectConservation Scienceen
dc.subjectSimulationen
dc.subjectModellingen
dc.subjectEcologyen
dc.titleScenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Speciesen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentUniversity of Chester, Manchester Metropolitan University; Newcastle Universityen
dc.identifier.journalPLOS oneen
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